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EU
Could Usher in Better Russian Relations
Baltic entry into the European Union, planned for next year,
could improve what have often been severely strained diplomatic and
trade relations with neighboring Russia, officials in the Baltic
states say. Estonian Prime Minister Juhan Parts said Wednesday,
just days before a Sept. 14 referendum on EU membership, that his
country's entry into the mighty European bloc could help consign
historical anxieties—dating back centuries— to the past.
"It'll make us feel more secure, and it'll give us more
stature," said Part, speaking at his office in Tallinn, near a
large orthodox cathedral that once symbolized Russian power here.
"And Russia will see we're not a bad country— just a normal
European state."
Upcoming, EU referendums in
Estonia and Latvia— on Sept. 20— should pass, though not by nearly
the 90-percent-yes margin of the May referendum in the third Baltic
state, Lithuania. The Baltics, along with seven other candidate, are
slated to enter the EU in May, 2004. Since the Soviet collapse
restored their independence in 1991, all Baltics have complained at
times about what they've described as Russian bullying. Moscow, in
turn, has often accused Estonia and Latvia of discriminating against
their large Russian-speaking minorities.
Recent Estonian Foreign Minister
Toomas Ilves said Russia won't want to jeopardize its all-important
trade and diplomatic relationship with the EU— and so could be
expected to avoid direct confrontations with the Baltic states in the
future. "For 12 years, Russia has constantly exerted political
and economic pressure on the Baltic states, especially Latvia,"
he was quoted as telling Estonia's Postimees daily. "I
presume that after Estonia joins the EU, Russia will abandon its
harsh, arrogant policies ... it will soften."
Age-old trepidation about Russia
among Balts is also likely to wane. Lingering fears is illustrated by
one pro-membership advertisement in Estonia, trying to convey that EU
accession will offer protection from Russia: It lists the half-dozen
times neighboring Russia has waged war on Estonia, starting with Ivan
the Terrible's invasion in 1558. "Before, we were too weak to
deal with Russia directly on our own," said Marko Mihkelson,
chair of the Estonian parliament's foreign affairs committee. "In
EU and NATO, we're not alone anymore. That'll make our politicians
less emotional in dealing with Russia. That helps."
Changing mindsets could also
boost trade. Before the Soviet Union unraveled, the vast majority of
Baltic exports went to Russia. Today, less than 10 percent do, with EU
states now accounting for over 80 percent of Baltic trade. Legislators
have complained for years about double tariffs imposed by Moscow on
Estonian exports to Russia, saying they've stifled trade. Mihkelson
said they'd be dropped automatically when Estonia enters the EU—
according to EU-Russian trade pacts. Even doubling the Baltics' now
relatively modest trade with their giant neighbor could prove a boon
to the small but already economically dynamic Baltic states _ who saw
growth near or above 5 percent for several years straight and who have
aspirations to become so called Baltic Tigers.
The Russian bear could also
profit. "I recently talked to Russian officials in towns near
Estonia," said Mihkelson. "They're definitely eager to see
Estonia in the EU, to see the EU border so close. They know this will
create great business opportunities for them." Russian investors,
already present here, are likely to be further enticed by the prospect
that the nearby Baltics can provide seamless, duty-free access to the
whole EU.
Ilves said EU membership for the
Baltics, with their long if troubled history with Russia, would also
mean displacing a nearby Nordic nation as the acknowledged authority
on the East. "Finland," after the Baltic states join the
bloc, said Ilves, "will no longer be the Russian expert to which
the EU turns."
In Latvia, Edge to Yes Camp—Just
A Latvian opinion poll released
Wednesday, September 3, indicated that just below 50 percent of voters
were committed to voting yes in the September 20 referendum on European
Union membership. Some 25 percent were still undecided,
however, and the yes camp was likely to pick up many of those who
haven't yet made up their minds. If the number of committed voters
holds steady, the final result in the referendum should be over 50 or
even 60 percent in favor. The InMind polling agency interviewed
some 600 people at the end of August.
Many Latvians, like their
counterparts in Estonia, who vote on EU entry a week earlier, appear
doubtful that the EU will benefit them personally. But more than
enough voters seem willing to at least give the power bloc a chance,
accepting arguments made by the country's avidly pro-EU leadership
that membership will increase standards of living in Latvia in the
medium term and also provide lasting protection from any outside
economic, political and even military pressure from Russia.
Others have also argued that EU
entry will actually improve sometimes strained relations with Moscow
by giving Russian businesses easier access to Western markets via EU-member
Latvia. Russian investors, who already invest heavily in Latvia, could
be even more attracted to the region once it is part of the borderless
EU customs areas.
Estonia EU Numbers Up
Support for European Union entry has recently risen in Estonia,
appearing to lessen the chances that its EU membership referendum next
week could fail, according to an opinion poll released on Tuesday,
September 2. The survey by the Estonian-based Emor indicated
that of those planning to cast ballots on Sept. 14, 70 percent would
vote yes and 30 percent no. The agency questioned 753 eligible voters
and respondents weren't given the option of saying they were
undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
Estonia and neighboring Latvia,
which holds its EU referendum on Sept. 20, have been widely pegged as
the most EU-skeptical nations in Europe—with surveys consistently
showing that people in both countries are doubtful about the benefits
of joining. For much of this year, the percentage of people saying
they back membership drifted between 50 and 60 percent, depending on
the question asked—at least raising the possibility that this Baltic
Sea nation could become the first EU candidate to reject membership.
Estonia's pro-EU government,
spooked by the lukewarm support for the EU early this summer, has
since pulled out the stops, campaigning hard and warning of dire
consequences should people opt out of the bloc. Leaders say Estonia's
economy and national security would be jeopardized. The no camp, which
is cash-strapped and boasts few prominent public figures, has been
less effective at getting its anti-EU message out. "Campaigning
really only started in early August and it's made a difference. The
government, and other key associations and businesses, have called for
a yes vote," said Aivar Voog, an Emor analyst.
"Chances of the referendum failing now are very small—maybe 1
or 2 percent, I'd say."
Skeptics argue that Estonia would
be dictated to by larger nations within the EU and that the country's
fragile Finno-Ugric culture would come under threat. They also compare
the EU to the centralized Soviet Union, which Estonia broke away from
12 years ago. Estonia's main opposition party, the center-left Center
Party, voted at a conference last month to oppose EU membership. But
rather than rallying EU detractors, that decision appears to have had
the effect of energizing pro-EU forces.
Key Party Opposes EU Entry
Estonia's main opposition party came out against entry into the European
Union—a dramatic decision that is expected to greatly intensify
debate here in the run-up to next month's closely contested referendum
on EU membership. The other leading parties in Estonia, including
the three ruling parties, all argue that entering the European bloc
will improve the nation's economic prospects and make the small,
historically vulnerable country more secure.
But the left-leaning Center
Party, which controls 28 seats in Estonia's 101-seat parliament,
became the first mainstream Estonian party to ever openly oppose the
EU after delegates at its annual party congress in August to adopt an
anti-EU platform. Many delegates at Saturday's gathering, including
several Center Party leaders, spoke passionately in favor of
EU entry. But others argued Estonia would be dictated to by larger
nations within the bloc and that membership would mean sharply higher
food prices, hurting the poor. One EU skeptic held a placard outside
party's meeting hall in Tartu that read, "EU entry is a project
of the business and political elite." Another said, "No to
EU price rises and bureaucracy."
Center Party chairman
Edgar Savisaar appeared to waver about whether or not he personally
opposed EU membership, saying he would have preferred a party platform
that remained neutral. But in a speech before delegates voted, he had
harsh words for the EU, saying he saw parallels between it and the
centralized Soviet Union. Out 803 Center Party delegates who
cast ballots, 341 favored the anti-EU line, 235 wanted the party to
support membership and 227 called for the party to take no stand at
all. Estonia's referendum is on Sept. 14—followed by Latvia's six
days later. The two Baltic states are widely pegged as the most EU
skeptical of the 10 nations scheduled to join in 2004. The Czech
Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta
have already approved EU referendums—most by wide margins. Cyprus is
leaving its decision to lawmakers. Opinion poll figures have bounced
up and down for months in Estonia and Latvia, with the percentage of
EU backers sometimes edging over 60 percent, then dipping close to 50
percent—depending on the question asked. Most polls show at least 10
percent of voters are undecided.
"A politician who compares
the EU with the Soviet Union simply doesn't know what the EU is,"
pro-EU Estonian Prime Minister Juhan Parts was quoted as telling
Monday's Eesti Paevaleht daily when asked about Savisaar's
comments; he said he was still confident Estonia's referendum would
pass. The Postimees newspaper said in a Monday commentary that
the Center Party's anti-EU stance "could force the pro-EU
camp to consolidate," boosting the EU side's prospects; it also
said the move could lead to the Center Party's political
isolation—especially if Estonia does enter the EU next year.
Latvia, Estonia: Most EU-Skeptical
European Union supporters in Latvia and Estonia expressed
concern on Thursday, July 24 about a new survey pegging their
countries as the most EU-skeptical in Europe—findings that come just
two months before both Baltic states hold referendums on membership. A
mere 32 percent of Estonians and 37 percent of Latvians agreed entry
would be "a good thing," making them the most pessimistic of
those questioned in the EU study released Wednesday. By contrast, 72
percent of Cypriots and 61 percent of Poles said joining would be good
for them.
Latvia and Estonia will be the
last of 10 EU candidate countries to put the issue of entry to a vote—and
observers say there's now a chance that one or both nations could
become the first to reject membership in Europe's most powerful
multilateral club. "People are afraid, they don't know what to
believe and they're confused," said Pille-Mai Helemae,
spokeswoman for the high-profile "Yes to the EU" group in
Estonia. "It's going to be a hard fight. But in the end, I'm sure
enough people will see more pros than cons to membership."
Confusion about the EU was illustrated in the biannual Eurobarometer
_ which questioned 1,000 people in each candidate nation in May—with
62 percent of Latvian and 71 percent of Estonian respondents saying
they were either poorly informed about the accession process or not
informed at all.
The Czech Republic, Hungary,
Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta have already approved
EU referendums, most by wide margins. Cyprus is leaving it's decision
to lawmakers. If Estonia and Latvia pass their plebiscites on Sept. 14
and Sept. 20 respectively, they would join the EU together with the
other candidates in 2004.
Virtually all top leaders in
Estonia and Latvia have been pro-EU since the Baltic Sea nations
regained independence—arguing that entry will raise their nations
international stature, forge vital European trade links and boost
living standards.
But official enthusiasm has never
been matched outside the halls of power, with many Estonians and
Latvians fearing a loss of sovereignty to the EU. Anti-EU groups
compare what they say is an overly centralized EU with the U.S.S.R.;
one of their symbols is an EU flag stamped with a Communist hammer and
sickle.
If the results of the latest
survey spooked EU supporters, they delighted opponents. "If
you're a EU supporter, I believe the picture is even blacker,"
said Uno Silberg, who heads Estonia's "No to the EU
Movement." "We're confident the referendum will
fail."
But there was good news for pro-EU
forces in the survey. Doubts about the EU, for one thing, don't seem
to automatically translate into no voters. Only 31 percent of
Estonians and 27 percent of Latvians said they were sure they'd cast
ballots against entry, with 41 and 49 percent saying they'd definitely
vote yes. The rest were undecided or said they wouldn't go to the
polls at all—giving a clear edge to the 'yes' camp.
Opposition Leader EU Qualms
Estonian opposition leader Edgar Savisaar has
expressed reservations about the benefits of joining the European
Union—his critical comments coming months before a
crucial Sept. 14 referendum on membership. The head of the leftist
Center Party, one of Estonia's largest parties, wrote in
Thursday's edition of the Postimees daily that Estonians
shouldn't accept arguments that they had no choice—for economic and
security reasons—but to join the powerful European bloc. "This
is the worst reason for accession. Estonia is an independent state. We
don't have to do anything that we don't want to do," he said.
Virtually all top leaders, both
in government and in opposition, have voiced support for EU membership
since Estonia regained independence—and such publicly expressed
doubts from a high-profile figure have been rare. Savisaar's party is
expected to take a formal position on the referendum next month, and
there has been widespread media speculation that Savisaar could call
on voters to say no to the EU. Other key leaders in his party have
said unequivocally that they back the EU bid.
Savisaar stopped short of saying
he opposed membership Thursday, insisting he was neither a
"Euro-skeptic nor a Euro-optimist." He has said in the past
that there would be at least some benefits of joining the EU, like the
possibility of faster economic development in some sectors. But
Savisaar, who is also the mayor of Tallinn, singled out the new EU
draft constitution for criticism Thursday, saying "it makes the
EU constitution superior to the constitutions of each member
state" and creates a single super state. "That puts
everything in place," he wrote, adding Estonia is on record as
opposing a heavily centralized EU. "We should be bold enough to
admit we were unable to prevent such developments."
Savisaar's comments come as
Estonia's pro-EU leadership, spooked by opinion polls showing lukewarm
support for entering the bloc, began explicitly urging residents to
vote yes in the referendum. Last month, President Arnold Ruutel, Prime
Minister Juhan Parts and Parliament Speaker Ene Ergma warned that
failure to approve EU entry would deliver a severe blow to the
country. "Staying out of the EU will mean a serious backlash for
the economy," a joint statement from the three read.
"Staying out of the EU means being in a security vacuum." EU
proponents argue that membership would protect the country from
economic and military pressure from neighboring Russia. Savisaar has
said EU advocates exaggerate the dangers from the East.
Baltic Side with EU on Court; US
Cuts Aid
The three Baltic states, staunch supporters of the United States
for years, criticized Washington's decision on July 1 to cut off U.S.
military aid over their failure to sign agreements promising never to
hand Americans over to the International Criminal Court. Some
Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians said that the cutoff could be seen
as a slap in the face after they went out on a limb earlier this year
to back Washington's policy on Iraq; all three have also sent
peacekeeping troops to the Persian Gulf. "As future NATO members,
we expect to be dealt with as allies, not like this," said Marko
Mihkelson, head of the Estonian legislature's foreign affairs
committee.
Baltic hesitation about
signing immunity deals stemmed from their plans to also join the
European Union, which opposes current or future members signing
such agreements. But the Baltics, once extremely nervous about
offending one side or another, now seem to have sided firmly with the
EU. "Estonia's position is that we accepted the International
Criminal Court and don't see, as a future EU member, any serious
reason to join the U.S. immunity agreement," Mihkelson said.
Latvia and Lithuania also said they will now follow the EU's lead.
The United States has been among
the largest contributors of military aide to the Baltic states,
providing tens of millions of dollars over the past several years.
U.S. aid to the fledging Baltic armies—which, combined, number less
than 20,000 troops—has been key to their efforts to modernize.
Estonia, for instance, received 3 million dollars last year, part of
which was used to buy 44 helicopters. U.S. aide has also been used to
build a pan-Baltic radar network, the absence of which had made the
Baltics almost completely vulnerable to airborne attacks. But Estonian
Defense Ministry spokesman Madis Mikko said that all 6 million in aid
from the United States this year had already been spent, so the aid
cut wouldn't immediately affect Estonia. He said he understood aid
would resume after the Baltics enter NATO next year. "So we've
really lost nothing. It's not tragic," he said. "It's more a
political issue." Lithuania's 12 million and Latvia's 10 million
has also been allocated before the July 1 cutoff of aid, so it would
also not be lost. The fact that the Baltics were able to spend this
year's money in ample time seems to suggest Washington intended, first
and foremost, to make a political statement rather than to actually
penalize or damage Baltic militaries.
Mihkelson added that he didn't
think the U.S. measure would have long-lasting consequences. "I
don't see this as a disaster," he said. "The overwhelming
feeling here and in Washington is that relations are very good and I
don't think this particular issue will turn that around."
Leaders Abandon 'Neutrality,' Calls
for Yes Vote
Estonian leaders, seemingly spooked by opinion polls showing
lukewarm support for European Union membership, broke with what
had been established protocol in late June by explicitly urging
citizens to vote yes in an upcoming EU referendum. Until June, the
nation's pro-EU leadership said it would call on some 1 million
eligible voters to cast ballots but not tell people how they should
vote in the run-up to the Sept. 14 plebiscite.
But in the first statement of its
kind Wednesday, June 25, President Arnold Rüütel, Prime Minister
Juhan Parts and Parliament Speaker Ene Ergma no longer minced words,
warning that failure to approve EU entry would deliver a severe blow
to the small Baltic state. "Staying out of the EU will mean a
serious backlash for the economy," the joint statement read.
"Staying out of the EU means being in a security vacuum."
The communiqué did not elaborate about the security consequences,
though pro-EU groups have argued that Estonia, as a member of the
European bloc, would be immune from economic or even military pressure
from neighboring Russia—which dominated Estonia for much of the 21st
century.
The appeal also challenged EU
critics in this economically dynamic, Western-oriented nation of 1.4
million people who say entry will result in a loss of sovereignty and
endanger the country's Finno-Ugric culture and vowel-laden
language—which is closely related to Finnish. "The Estonian
language will be an official EU language and this will secure the
future of our mother tongue," Estonia's top three civil servants
said, adding that membership will also "help Estonian living
standards reach the level of wealthy EU nations."
EU skeptics blasted the statement
as a breach of earlier pledges. "They promised not to campaign
like this. This is arm twisting," complained Igor Gräzin, a law
professor and leading EU opponent here. "But what it says is that
they are scared. They are scared that the tide has turned against EU
membership in the last few weeks and months." Gräzin said the
recent publication of an EU draft constitution frightened many
Estonians. He said many saw it as a prescription for an overly
centralized, heavy-handed union and was too similar to the
constitution of the totalitarian USSR."It's Kafkaesque," he
said. "Even many of these Estonians leaders say privately they
don't feel good about joining the EU. But when they come together, you
get this collective preaching—as if they're all trying hard to
convince each other that the EU is very good after all."
Gräzin, also a former
parliamentarian and a one-time independence activist, added that
official debate about the EU reminded him of Soviet-era discussions
about Party leaders. "It's like when I sat in on meetings of the Communist
Party, where those present would argue whether Leonid Brezhnev was
a genius or just extremely talented. With the EU, it's whether
membership will be a heavenly paradise or merely paradise on
earth," he said.
Hannes Rumm, head of the Estonian
government's EU information office, denied the joint statement
contradicted earlier promises, saying the government only vowed that
it would not spend taxpayers money on commercial advertising calling
for a "yes" vote.
Opinion poll numbers have bounced
up and down for months, with the percentage of EU backers sometimes
edging toward 60 percent, but also dipping to 50—depending on the
question asked. Most polls show at least 10 percent of voters are
undecided.
Estonia is the next in a series
of EU-candidate countries to have held referendums. Latvia will be the
last to hold one—on Sept. 20. To date, the Czech Republic, Hungary,
Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta have all approved EU
referendums. Cyprus is leaving the choice to parliament.
Appeal for EU Help on Environmental
Cleanup
Estonian officials say that 2 percent of the country remains
contaminated by Soviet-era pollution, adding that it will require at
least ten more years and the help of European Union money to
clean up the worst areas. Estonia's Environment Ministry said
about 900 square kilometers of the country's of 45,000 square
kilometers, or about 2 percent, are thought to have environmental
problems that date back to Soviet rule, most from Soviet bases that
dotted the nation.
Ministry spokesman Rene Reisner
said Estonia will soon apply for a 7-million-dolar grant from the EU
to help pay for the clean-up. Estonia, along with Latvia and
Lithuania, is slated to join the bloc next year. He said Estonia was
bound by EU membership treaties to clean up the pollution. Kertu Kaera,
a spokesman for the EU's office in Tallinn, said the EU was
"aware of the environmental problems" and would favorably
consider requests for aid.
After the Soviets occupied the
Baltics in 1940, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were home to tens of
thousands of Red Army troops. Moscow withdrew its last troops from the
region in 1994, three years after the Baltics regained independence.
More than 1,000 Soviet military installations were located along
Estonia's 3,800 kilometers of winding coasts, in the country's dense
forests or on islands, with dozens of bases and bunkers in and around
Tallinn.
The money to be requested from
the EU is only a fraction of what officials say they need to fully
erase all traces of Soviet abuse of the land. The environment ministry
has said the environmental damage caused by the five decades of Soviet
occupation was as much as 5 billion dollars, or larger than Estonia's
entire annual budget of about 3 billion dollars. But Reisner said 1.5
billion dollars must be spent over the next ten years to bring the
country into compliance with EU regulations by 2013.
Some of the worst damage was in
the coastal town of Paldiski, 50 kilometers from the capital, where
the Soviets had a nuclear submarine base. The area is still littered
with spent shells and some nuclear waste, though the most dangerous
residue has been contained. The nearby islands of Pakri were used for
target practice by Soviet long-range bombers that flew in, showered
explosives onto the islands, then returned to Russia, according to
Madis Mikko, a spokesman for Estonia's Ministry of Defense. Cleanup
projects are underway on the islands. At Soviet air bases in Estonia,
pilots often dumped tons of airplane fuel to hide evidence from their
superiors that they hadn't flown the required number of training
hours, Mikko said. "There was a time when you could dig down to
the water table level in some places and find virtually pure fuel oil,
take it out and set it alight," he said. "But a lot of the
worst areas were cleaned several years ago."
Estonian officials have said
Moscow should help pay for the clean-up, but said that was unlikely to
happen. "The rest of the world is funding the cleanup of Russia's
own environmental problems," he said. "So I have no hope
Russia would pay us. But it would be morally correct."
Long Catch Up to EU Living Standards
It will take the Baltic states some 30 to 50 years to catch up to
living standards in current European Union states, according to
a study released in June by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Among Eastern European countries, it said that Estonia and Slovenia
would close the economic gap the fastest, roughly reaching EU living
standards in 31 years; it said it would take Lithuania 53 years and
Latvia 58. Romania will take the longest time to catch up, some 80
years, the London-based research group estimated.
The calculations were made on the
basis of relatively optimistic growth scenarios, with annual GDP
growth in the Baltics states staying at or above 4 percent for the
next several decades. But the report warned that it could take the
countries even longer to match standards of wealth farther West if
government leaders make the wrong policy choices.
It add that EU membership, which
the Baltics and several other East European countries will win next
year, won't be an automatic economic boost. “The true impact depends
not on the mere fact of adding countries to the EU club, but on the
interplay between policy and the potential that enlargement
creates,” said Daniel Franklin, Editorial Director of the Economist
Intelligence Unit. Economic performance will vary, and with it the
pattern of growth across the EU, but intensified competition in an
enlarged single market generally will encourage policies that make
markets more open and flexible, the report said.
Referendums Boost Estonian,
Latvian Bids
Pro-European Union forces in Estonia and Latvia, dubbed the
most EU skeptical of ten candidate nations, say recent approval of
membership referendums in Poland and other countries has boosted
chances that their own referendums will pass successfully. Recent
opinion polls in both Baltic states indicate between 55-60 percent of
residents back entry into the powerful European bloc, though in recent
years that number has sometimes fallen below 50 percent—with
many Estonians and Latvians saying they worry about losing sovereignty
to the EU. Supporters in the two Baltics, however, say overwhelming
yes votes in the fellow Baltic state of Lithuania last month and also
in nearby Poland this past weekend is creating what they describe as
an irresistible, pro-EU momentum. Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and
Malta have also approved EU referendums; the Czech Republic votes this
week, and Estonia and Latvia in September. Parliament is making the
choice in Cyprus.
The chairman of Estonia's foreign
affairs committee in parliament, Marko Mihkelson, said his countrymen
will have the yes results very much in mind when they go to polling
stations on Sept. 14. "It somehow makes our decision
easier," he said. "After the Czech referendum, ours is the
next one. And after a row of yeses, I can't imagine the Estonians
saying no to the EU." Hannes Rumm, head of the Estonian
government's EU information office, said the yes vote in Lithuania,
where there was a 91 percent yes tally, had a particularly strong
influence on Estonians—especially those who were wavering on
membership. "For hesitators, Lithuania's a role
model," he said. "Their thinking is, 'If Lithuania did it,
we have no choice to follow them. There will be a border between us
and them if we don't. And we broke out of the Soviet Union together,
it's only right that we join the EU together.'" Uno Silberg—who
heads Estonia's main anti-EU group, the No to the EU Movement—said
he felt Estonians would draw a different conclusion: that the series
of candidate countries were railroaded into voting yes and that this
will turn even more Estonians off to membership. "In all these
votes, it's only one side, supported by the government and by
officials from outside the countries, that was heard," he said.
"It's all been very unfair campaigning." He added, though,
that he still had hope of defeating the referendum.
But Rumm said recent surveys bore
out the positive affect of all the yes votes to date, with one showing
that backing for the EU leapt from 50 to 59 percent just after
Lithuania voted; around 10 percent remain undecided. The same May
study by Estonia's EMOR found that, among those who said they'd bother
casting ballots at all, 63 percent would vote yes—further
buttressing the optimism of EU enthusiasts. Analysts also say that
poll numbers have, if Lithuania and Poland are any guide, tended to
underestimate the strength of EU support.
EU backers in Estonia and Latvia
aren't likely to count on momentum carrying them to victory on Sept.
20, when Latvia will be the last EU candidate to hold such a
referendum. The Estonian and Latvian governments are expected to
launch massive get-out-the-vote campaigns and to also continue issuing
warnings, however subtly, that staying out of the EU could be an
economic, political and security disaster.
Lithuania Eyes Future After
Referedum Lithuanians began looking to
their future in the European Union following a weekend
referendum in May that resulted in a whopping 90 percent of voters
approving entry into the powerful bloc; many Lithuanians are hopeful
that membership will further improve their lives. "Lithuania
Wakes Up in the European Union," read a banner headline on
the front of Lithuania's largest daily, Lietuvos Rytas, Monday.
In an editorial, it added that EU membership should increase living
standards and help the country "fully reach the levels of the
modern world." Incoming investment and EU aid money could
also boost the economy—booming at 9 percent growth the first quarter
of 2003—to new heights. Advocates say entry also returns Lithuania
to its rightful place in Europe and gives the historically vulnerable
nation a sense of security.
Even though it is now EU bound,
Lithuania still faces a host of social and economic problems,
including a yawning gap between rich and poor; the average monthly
wage in Lithuania, the equivalent of less than 300 dollars, is half
that of the poorest current EU member, Greece. While increased wealth
is apparent in more and more giant shopping malls and posh restaurant
in the cities, poverty seems rampant in the countryside; many farmer
can't afford modern equipment and so still use horses and age-old
wooden plows to till their fields.
Farmers hope subsidies from the
EU will improve their lot—though they have complained about an EU
decision to provide lowers levels of agricultural subsidies to new
members. But at least one Lithuania newspaper, Verslo Zinios,
has warned that the country should not begin waiting around for EU
aide and subsidies to help Lithuania achieve its goal of becoming a
regional economic powerhouse in the manner of Ireland, dubbed the
Celtic Tiger. "Tigers," said the paper, "don't milk
cows."
Lithuania First to Vote
Itself in to EU
Fireworks exploded over the capital, Lithuanians uncorked
champagne and broke into song when it became clear late Sunday that
the country would be the first Baltic state to vote itself into the
European Union after a two-day referendum. A dramatic surge in
voting on the last day of voting on Sunday, May 11, meant that,
despite initial fears, the referendum would be valid—prompting
celebrations that lasted into Monday morning, including fireworks that
lit up the medieval old town in Vilnius. "Who will be the winner
today? Lithuania is the winner," Parliament Speaker Arturas
Paulauskas declared, raising a crystal glass in a parliamentary
hallway, calling for a toast. As he spoke, applauding lawmakers sang
the national anthem in full voice, some of them teary-eyed.
With 100 percent of all the results
counted, the "yes" vote was 91 percent, far higher than even
opinion polls had predicted. Election officials said 64 percent of
registered voters had cast ballots—easily exceeding the required 50
percent minimum.
Down the street from the parliament
building, the Prie Parlamento bar handed out small flags with
EU golden stars on one side and the red, green and yellow Lithuanian
tricolor on the other. A van drove down the street blaring Beethoven's
"Ode to Joy," the anthem of the EU, from loudspeakers. On
the steps of the presidential palace in the Vilnius old city, some 500
young people waved blue balloons while rock bands played; Lithuanian
and EU flags flew side by side over the building.
Turnout was just 30 percent Saturday,
the first day of the vote, prompting jittery leaders to urge residents
to vote; Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas demonstrated his
nervousness by canceling a Saturday trip to Estonia, where he was to
attend a 75th birthday party for Estonian President Arnold Ruutel.
Analysts said a large number of people voted after church services
Sunday in the predominantly Catholic country. In his remarks,
Paulauskas singled out clergymen—thanking them for urging
parishioners to cast their ballots.
Any failure to approve the referendum
would have been a major embarrassment for Lithuania, where virtually
all major parties staunchly back EU accession. It also could have cast
a pall over future EU referendums, including those planed for the
other two Baltic states in September. As the results became clear in
Lithuania, however, Latvians and Estonians said the positive
Lithuanian result would improve their own chances of passing
referendums. "This is fantastic for Latvia," said Ramona
Umblija, a Latvian organizer of its vote later this year, in Vilnius
observing the Lithuanian poll. "There is a friendly rivalry
between the three Baltics. Latvians are now going to say, 'Ah,
Lithuania passed theirs. We must pass ours.'"
In Brussels, President of the
Commission Romano Prodi also hailed the day, saying the landslide in
favor of membership bodes well for Lithuania's future in the powerful
European bloc. "As a result, there will be a strong voice for
Lithuania inside the EU," he said. "This will be good for
Lithuania, and I am convinced it will also be good for the EU."
"It is encouraging for all of us to see such enthusiasm for EU
accession," added EU Commissioner for Enlargement Gunter
Verheugen.
Estonia Bucks for EU IT Agency
Estonia wants to host a new European Union information
technology agency, with officials here arguing that the country's
advanced Internet infrastructure and lower business costs made it
ideally qualified. Estonia doesn't now belong to the EU but is
expected to join in May, 2004—around the time the agency is to be
founded, said Arvo Ott, of the Economics Ministry's Informatics
Department. He said Estonia recently notified the EU of its desire to
host the 50-employee office.
The EU agency, dubbed the Network
and Information Security Agency, would concentrate on Internet and
mobile phone security, including by finding ways to prevent fraud in
commercial transactions in cyberspace. Nearby tech giants Finland and
Sweden are also trying to woo the EU agency to their shores.
Ott said one question was how
Estonia could begin the application process to become an agency host
country when it wasn't yet in the EU. He said Estonians were inquiring
with EU legal experts about how this might be done. "This could
be a major obstacle," he said.
Dubbed E-Stonia by some,
the country ranked No. 8 out of 82 countries in putting the Net to
practical use in a recent World Economic Forum report. "We
believe we have lots of selling points," said Ott. "We have
good Internet systems, a well-educated work force, low costs and
excellent contacts with existing EU countries."
—CITY
PAPER-The Baltic States
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